Are Recessions Linked to Lessened Mortality?

In these times, thoughts turn to the Great Depression, and we look for possible parallels that could foretell a worsening, rather than an immediate recovery.  We also look for any silver linings.  One is offered by an analysis done by University of Michigan scientists, which is published online in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.  It shows that life expectancy actually increased, by an average of 6.2 years, during the Great Depression.

US life expectancy and mortality data were reviewed for the years 1920 to 1940, along with available health indicators and changes in economic activity.  Health generally improved during the Great Depression (1930-1933), with life expectancy increasing for men, women, whites, and nonwhites.  On the other hand, when there was robust economic growth during the Roaring 20s (1921-1926) life expectancy for non-white men fell by 8.1 years, and for non-white women it fell by 7.4 years.  White men and women showed a similar, though smaller, change. 

Analysis of different age groups showed that peak mortality changes in all groups were reached in times of economic expansion – 1923, 1926, and 1936-1937.  The only exception for mortality was suicide, but it accounted for only 2% of deaths during the Great Depression. 

These findings are pretty counterintuitive; one would expect periods of high unemployment would be harmful to the general health, and be linked with a higher mortality rate.  In fact, cardiovascular and kidney disease, cancer, flu and pneumonia, tuberculosis, and motor vehicle accidents were less deadly during hard economic times.

What accounts for this effect?  A better economy means more automobiles, more accidents, and thus more particulate matter air pollution.  There’s also more money to spend on alcohol and cigarettes.  Economic growth also means more factory orders, causing people to work harder and sleep less.  New workers may be hired, with lack of experience leading to more accidents.  During recessions, all these factors are reversed. 

It’s unlikely that the results obtained for the Great Depression will be reproduced today, as there have been great sociological and environmental changes since the 1930s.  Healthcare and lifestyles have evolved enormously in the last 80 years; the only points of similarity are the economic factors.  Thus there are health risks – cutting back on medications, postponing medical care, and the closure of suicide prevention clinics – that poor individual and public finances today can prevent the otherwise predicted improvement in public health.  And remember, this study only examined population changes.  It does nothing to offer encouragement to the individuals who have lost their job or savings.